There were six draws in La Liga last week, our model predicted zero draws. In fact, the model rarely predicts a draw because if a particular team winning is rated 0.1% more likely than the draw the model selects that as its pick. It’s tough out there, and the model’s been pretty poor for about a month. It’s at least some comfort that the bettors were also dreadful last week.
We’re running out of weeks for this, only four more editions of these predictions for the year then we’ll take stock and see how we did.
The only home team not predicted to win this week by our model is Getafe, and that’s predicted to go to a draw. I think the model might have the Madrid derbi correct, after all Real Madrid have officially secured the league title, they are coming off a brutal midweek match against Manchester City, and they don’t have much reason to play their best players other than Carlo Ancelotti’s inborn unwillingness to rotate. Other results I am more dubious on, and one of them is Villarreal being favored against Sevilla. We have a mentally tough and resilient team, but this is going to be a match where both sides are heavily invested in the result and we are a bit banged up at the moment. I dunno, it feels like a draw to me.
If Levante could beat Real Sociedad, that would be great for us, but I don’t see it happening. If La Real and Betis both lose this weekend and we can beat Sevilla we are right back in the race for 5th place, and whether we are looking to regain the Europa League or venture into the Conference League next year probably has some impact on summer plans. If Valencia can get something out of their match with Athletic Club, that would give us some breathing room.
With the European dream over, all focus turns to La Liga as we look to see who finishes where in the European races, and who gets relegated to Segunda.