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La Liga Matchday 34 odds and predictions

Villarreal return to league action to face Alaves.

Liverpool v Villarreal Semi Final Leg One - UEFA Champions League Photo by Simon Stacpoole/Offside/Offside via Getty Images

I’m not over Wednesday yet. I don’t know how to refocus and think about playing Alaves with a second choice XI and hopefully the players and coaches at the club are better about it than I am. Nevertheless, here we go. The form of our prediction model is completely and entirely off the rails. I am not sure I have any theories about what is wrong besides the fact that the end of the season and the apathy/desperation of various clubs in various situations transcends what can be anticipated by shear numbers.

Matchday 34

@analyticslaliga

The model has decided it really loves Cadiz, I know they’ve been scrapping like crazy yesterday but I don’t know about them beating Sevilla, much less them being the highest win percentage of anyone in the league this week. It’s almost bizarre how many away teams have been picked this week by the model, with Madrid and Barcelona the only home teams truly favored. Many of these away team choices are close, with Valencia, Athletic Club, and Elche all within 5% winning chance of their visitors.

Assuming we don’t screw anything up, the result for us to watch is of course Real Sociedad traveling to Rayo Vallecano. Rayo is coming off a big win, and we need them to get another one. We’re five points behind Betis and catching them is not entirely out of the question. I’m not so sure Getafe is going to help us a lot.

It’s not impossible that Villarreal catch Liverpool, but making the best out of La Liga is probably our best throw at this point.