La Liga Matchday 29 Odds and Predictions

We went 6/10 last week to continue our hot run of form in predictions but the algorithm has spat out some absolute mind-blowing ideas for this week so let’s see if it continues. Straight into the predictions, then.

Matchday 29

@analyticslaliga

I’m not really sure when the last weekend was that Elche, Alaves, and Levante all won but I was astonished to see it predicted. Beyond that, Cadiz is picked to win too! After beating Juventus in Turin, it’s entirely possible that we let our foot off the gas and draw this one but I really would not expect us to lose. Part of what is astounding here is the degree to which the algorithm likes these teams. Elche is given nearly a 60% chance to win over Valencia!

It almost makes you wonder if the algorithm, after being strong for a few weeks, is going to have to recalibrate with a bad week or two. Part of what’s been happening is that these lower table teams have in fact played better recently, but they’ve done so largely against lower table opposition. Without deep diving into it, my instinct is that what has happened is that we’ve had a couple weeks where the upper table sides have more or less beat each other up some will certain lower table sides have been making hay, causing the overall math of the situation to get out of place.

Or, maybe, we just have the most brilliant prediction algorithm football has ever seen and we’ll nail it this week.

Thoughts?