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La Liga Matchday 28 Odds and Predictions

Who is going to win this week in La Liga?

Real Madrid CF v Real Sociedad - La Liga Santander Photo by Burak Akbulut/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

After 27 matchdays in La Liga, we have 51.1% accuracy from the prediction model. The betting book we use as comparison sits at 53.3%, and you can bet they spend millions of dollars on their prediction model. By comparison, I’d say we are doing exceptionally well and the model was 7/10 last week including an Osasuna win over Villarreal that I for one was very incredulous about.

Matchday 28


We are very heavy favorites against Celta Vigo, and there are reasons for that which will be covered more in our formal match preview. In terms of results that impact Villarreal’s chances for Europe, Athletic Club is favored over Real Betis but Real Sociedad is favored over Alaves. Osasuna is given no real chance against Barcelona, though it seems to me that his might be the exact sort of banana peel match Barca could mess up. They play Galatasaray tomorrow and next Thursday and a Europa League trophy would redeem their season somewhat, so they’ll likely be heavily rotated against Osasuna and we know all too well how stubborn that side can be.

Atletico Madrid is expected to take care of business against Cadiz, and Mallorca is given little chance against the league leaders. That latter match will be interesting though because the result of the Real Madrid vs PSG tie (which hasn’t happened yet as of writing but will have happened by the time you read this) will have a large emotional effect on the Madrid side no matter how it turns out. Our model this week predicts four away wins, twice as many as chosen by the bettors.