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La Liga Matchday 26 odds and predictions

How hard is it to predict each La Liga side?

Villarreal v Dynamo Kyiv - UEFA Europa League Round Of 16 Leg Two Photo by Jose Breton/Pics Action/NurPhoto via Getty Images

It’s very strange to go on with normal routines of life when Eastern Europe is in such massive turmoil, but I guess it’s also a reminder that many countries around the world have internal turmoil at any given point and time and we scarcely notice unless an outside power gets involved.

Our prediction model went 6/10 last week after two straight weeks at 7/10. Staying above the .500 mark is generally our goal so this is good. We do have a special treat this week as we look at how well our model has performed for each specific team. Check this out:


Cadiz, Celta Vigo, and Osasuna have been the hardest to predict teams so far this season, with Rayo, Real Madrid, and Getafe being the easiest. The Rayo result surprised me because they started out hotter than most people expected and have since cooled down drastically.

Matchday 26


Barcelona are heavy favorites over Athletic Club, but I have a really hard time buying into that one given just how hard Athletic Club have been to score on all season. Marcelino can get at least a draw there, I think. The lowest chance to win this week goes to Rayo Vallecano, who are one of the biggest underdogs I’ve seen play at home all year long.

Villarreal are solid favorites against Espanyol, and I think we would all be comfortable with that. The team has played pretty well of late so as long as we don’t have a post Champions League letdown we should be fine. Real Madrid traveling there is the only road win the bettor’s pick this week, whereas we have four of them.