La Liga Matchday 25 Odds and Predictions

We went 7/10 for the second consecutive week and the prediction algorithm is just really dialed in right now. I’d have to pour through the data to look, but I’m pretty sure that if you just took Villarreal predictions out of the percentages for the year the overall accuracy of the model would go up by a couple of percentage points. It’s worth noting that the model did get Atleti’s makeup match with Levante from the midweek wrong, but you probably could have guessed that already.

Matchday 25

Villarreal is predicted to get an away win against an opponent that hasn’t beaten us in their last 11 tries. For those in competition with us for European places, Real Sociedad is favored over Athletic Club, Atleti is decidedly not predicted to win, and FC Barcelona are heavily favored. A draw between La Real and Athletic Club, a draw for Barca and Valencia, and a win for Osasuna would all be great combined with a Villarreal win.

Alaves are given virtually no chance against Real Madrid, though there is the question of whether Carlo Ancelotti will actually rotate for once in that one. Real Betis look to cruise against Mallorca, and Sevilla should win also. Rayo, once the darlings of La Liga this term, and projected to lose to Elche.

We are at the point in the season where nearly every result seems to impact either the title, Europe, or relegation, and for me that’s where the La Liga season really comes into its own. I get excited for the first few weeks of a league year and then it is kind of a grind until we get to February onward, so I am officially locked in and ready to see how it all turns out.

Thoughts?