clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

La Liga Matchday 24 Odds and Predictions

Who will win in the extremely tight race for the top four in Spain?

Deportivo Alaves v Athletic Club - La Liga Santander Photo by Juan Manuel Serrano Arce/Getty Images

Our model got 7/10 right last week, a joint best. On the year, if you compare our predictions to DraftKings, we get 4.91 results right per week, while they get 5.13. A margin, to be sure, but considering they probably spend millions on their predictions and (spoiler alert) we don’t, I’m very impressed by what Mitch and Charlie have put together in this debut season for the prediction model.

Matchday 24


Keep in mind, as ever, that we do not insert any bias into our model, it’s based entirely on the numbers that get automatically plugged into the algorithm. That means that after beating Real Betis last week, we really are favored to beat Real Madrid this week. I think probable lack of Gerard Moreno complicates that consistently, but we’ve been a very good offensive team this season and Madrid have not been impervious to dropping points.

In the Catalan Derby, FC Barcelona are rather narrow favorites against Espanyol, all things considered, and in a fight between Castilian sides, Atletico Madrid are massive favorites against Getafe. Things don’t look great for Rayo coming off their Copa Del Rey first leg loss, and Mallorca is an upset prediction over Athletic Club.

The difference between fourth and eighth in La Liga is just four points. Not all of those teams will make it to European competition. At this point of the season, every match is crucial.