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La Liga Matchday 21 Odds and Predictions

It’s a weird week in Spain thanks to the Saudi Supercopa

Valencia CF v Elche CF - La Liga Santander Photo by Jose Miguel Fernandez/NurPhoto via Getty Images

So far this season, our model averages 4.9 correct predictions per matchday. As Charlie says, we’d love to get it over 5 (Draftkings, for instance, is at 5.2), but considering this is a brand new concept we are all very pleased with it. Last week, we got 4 correct, and we have a shortened week this time around.

Matchday 21

@analyticslaliga

Everything about this matchday is weird. We’re missing some matches because the Supercopa is happening on a separate continent, and even though La Liga knew before the season which teams would be playing in said supercopa they did not schedule any of those four teams to play each other in matchday 21, which would have reduced the number of make up matches to be done later. Then, they spread what matches they had over an entire week, with Villarreal and Elche kicking things off Sunday and Getafe facing Granada on Thursday; then matchday 22 begins on that Friday. It’s a convoluted mess, if you ask me.

Villarreal and Betis are massive favorites this week and on their recent respective forms that makes a lot of sense to me. Celta vs Osasuna is the closest call of the week, with a draw being the most likely result per our numbers. That match and Valencia vs Sevilla are the two places where we disagree with the betting books, and the latter is coming from the fact that Sevilla has only scored more than two goals once in La Liga since November. Their title hopes hang by a thread, especially with Newcastle knocking on the door of a Diego Carlos buy, and a loss to Valencia would make matters much worse. Before they can worry about that, though, they have to face Betis in a Copa Del Rey match that is without question the premier contest of that competition so far, and is a much more interesting tie than the Saudi Supercopa final between Real Madrid and Athletic Club.

Thoughts?