Well, we know for a fact that Villarreal is going to get 38 points out of an undefeated season in 2021/2022, but how will the rest of the league shake out? We had a rough week last week on the prediction model, but hopefully we’ll bounce back this time out.
In a week where a lot of upsets happened in La Liga, our prediction model struggled to cope. Thus, we ended up only getting 3/10 correct.
Well, you can either see this week's prediction model results as a positive or a negative:— Charlie Tuley (@analyticsLaLiga) September 20, 2021
Positive: There were a lot of fun matches that ended in upsets
Negative: The model correctly predicted 3/10 results, and 1/10 scorelines
Regressing to the mean is natural after last week's pic.twitter.com/5yct9Oq2pN
Once again, Villarreal are not helping Charlie and Mitchel out. We turned a 40% chance to win into yet another draw. My personal favorite result of the year so far, though, is Barcelona failing to win a match that they had over an 80% chance to take in both the betting odds and our prediction model.
Despite the fact that almost our entire data set now is predicated on the mess that this current season has been, we are still predicted to beat Elche. We need three points there very, very badly. Levante vs Celta is probably as close a prediction as I’ve seen all year, and the side from Vigo need a win desperately. In fact, desperately is probably an overused term that doesn’t convey how much of a mess they are in. Charlie and Mitchel’s model predicts about a 11% less of a chance for a Madrid win against Mallorca than the betters do, and I think their model more accurately reflects the well organized, solid football that the newly promoted side has put forward.