La Liga Matchday 5 Odds and Predictions

After a week where European fixtures finally began, in which Villarreal drew yet again, we finally get to play in La Liga again. Coming off a week where the prediction model got 7/10 predictions correct, bringing their total to 14/30, here’s how it did in a week where two matches were missing:

Yep, it’s about .500 for the second week in a row, bringing their overall total to 19/38 predictions correct, fully halfway. This is also the last week that any data from last season will be used in the algorithm, so things should only get more accurate from here!

Charlie Tuley and Mitchel Green

In this week’s predictions, Granada is the biggest underdog that I think I’ve seen since this season began. In fact, it’s the first time their model has predicted a multi-goal margin from the outset. Barcelona looked limp against an electric Bayern side but I don’t think the Andalusian club has quite the same level of talent that the Bavarian superpower does. Villarreal is being predicted to win, but then it has been getting those predictions all year and hasn’t been able to capitalize. Mallorca is a lot better than they were last time they were in Primera and should not be underestimated.

Thinking ahead

Assuming this model continues to operate into next year (and it should) I think one of the difficulties to overcome will be this early part of the season where we are using last year’s data. Both matchdays so far where the algorithm had at least two weeks of current season La Liga data to work with, it’s gotten over 50% of the matches correct. That’s a trend I think will continue. If you want to know more about how the model works, check out this podcast where we discuss it with Charlie Tuley, the person who manages it.