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La Liga Matchday 19 Odds and Predictions

A new year begins in the world’s greatest football league.

Levante UD v CA Osasuna - La Liga Santander Photo by David Aliaga/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Alright we are back with our predictions for La Liga. In our mini-week of catchup matches, which La Liga Lowdown cruelly did not do a man of the match pole for, our model went 2-4, getting our match and the Real Madrid match both correct. We continue to hover around the 50% range for the year.

Matchday 19

@analyticsLaLiga

The curiosities this week are Getafe being predicted to beat Real Madrid and Cadiz forecasted to take down Sevilla. Getafe are coming off of 4/5 clean sheets and get a minor home team boost in the prediction, so in the math of our algorithm they look very, very strong. However, since they played us back on November 7th the only team in the top half of the table they have faced is Athletic Club. Strength of schedule is skewing their ability some. That all being said, with a rash of COVID positives at Real Madrid, who knows who they will even be able to send out for this match.

The Cadiz prediction is still the bolder of the two, for me. Sevilla haven’t created good chances lately, but opposite to Getafe, Athletic Club is probably the worst side they faced in the whole month of December in league play. They haven’t been creating chances but they’ll get a much weaker defense this time out to try against.

We are massive favorites against Levante this week but beware. Levante can certainly score goals at a rate that is mid table in La Liga, and we are rather prone to mistakes in the back. If we try short, out from the back, slow buildup we could be in for a long night.

Thoughts?