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La Liga Matchday 16 Odds and Predictions

Another week in the world’s greatest football league.

Real Madrid v Racing Santander Photo by Denis Doyle/Getty Images

The form has not been good in our prediction model over the last few weeks. We put up another 3/10 week which leaves us at 69/128 for the year, right at 54%. The model then correctly called Real Madrid beating Athletic Club in a midweek game in hand bringing us to 70/129 for the entire season. Villarreal has been very little help to the model, as it keeps expecting us to get better results than we’ve had and we fail to produce.

Matchday 16

Here’s what the model has in store for us this week:


Whether it’s the bettor’s books or our model, it’s a good week to be a home side in La Liga. Our model has Real Madrid and Alaves as the away winners, while the bookies have Athletic Club and Madrid. Villarreal are predicted by both models to lose at Sevilla, and it’s pretty hard to get mad at that given our current form. Poor Mallorca comes in as our biggest dogs this week with only a 7% win chance given to them. We do have another draw predicted, Getafe and Athletic Club, and given the fact that the Basque side draws more often than even we do, I feel pretty good about that one.

The prediction I probably disagree with the most is La Real losing at home to Real Madrid. I just watched Athletic Club batter Los Blancos in the actual run of play and their blue rivals are better than they are.


Do we have any chance against Sevilla this weekend?