I can’t believe we’ve done almost half a season of these things. For the second week in a row, we went 5/10, which is the same results provided by the betting sites. We actually have a new occurrence this week as the betting odds consider one match too close to call and there for leave both teams perfectly even to win. Our model predicts the game closely as well, but does pick a winner.
Our model barely tips Levante over Valencia whereas the bettors are banking on a draw. More relevant to the title race, Atletico Madrid is a massive favorite over Sevilla to an extent that I think would have caught me off guard. The lowest winning chance of the week goes to Cadiz at 3.43%. If those two matches go as our model has predicted, Real Madrid will have an eleven point lead at the top of the table and the league will look nearly over by Christmas which is highly unusual in Spain.
Barcelona is less than a percentage point favored over Elche, and even though our model keeps tossing these sorts of things out there (often being right) it’s still funny to me. Villarreal is a pretty strong favorite over Real Sociedad, and honestly I am rather confident about that match, myself. If we beat La Real, we’ll be level on points to where Osasuna is going into the weekend, still with a lot of work to go but realistically within striking distance of European places with a game in hand. We’re at an interesting point right now in the season, with three matches left to complete half our season docket, 7 or 9 points out of those matches could well see us just outside of European spots while playing our best football of the year.