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La Liga Matchday 17 Odds and Predictions

Deportivo Alaves v RC Celta de Vigo - La Liga Santander Photo by Juan Manuel Serrano Arce/Getty Images

I really owe an apology to Charlie and Mitchel, I was so caught up in all the Champions League stuff getting pushed back that this is coming out a day later than it should. I also owe you, the reader and apology because I am terrible at match and somwhere along the way in running my calculations for what our record was in these predictions, I got them wrong. That is exactly why Charlie and Mitchel do all the math and figuring of their algorithm and I stay far away from it. Going back, what I had done was in a couple different weeks I added our wins to our total without adding to the entire number of matches, so there have been 157 La Liga matches played instead of the 139 that I would have calculated after last week.

Every week when we do this, we include the betting odds in the graphics, and the betting odds predict correct results 50.6% of the time. Our model sits at 47.5% according to Charlie. That means that the prediction models that the betting companies spend millions of dollars on have so far only been 3.1% better than what Charlie and Mitchel have given us. We went 5/10 last week.

Matchday 17

@analyticsLaLiga

Alaves vs Getafe is our draw prediction this week, and in the match everyone will be most talking about, Atletico Madrid is not only favored but they are given the best winning odds of anyone in our list this week. Villarreal are heavier favorites against Rayo than I am comfortable with, but if we come with the style of play we used against Atalanta I am very confident.

Everyone in the league is given at least a 20% chance to win, which may not sound significant but in the vast majority of matchdays you have teams with either single digit or teen percentages to win and teams upwards of 60% chance to win are very common. This is a close matchweek that should give us a lot of compelling viewing!

Thoughts?

Can Villarreal kick on from their big win in the Champions League?