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La Liga Matchday 13: Odds and Predictions

Who will prevail before we head into the international break?

Rayo Vallecano v RC Celta de Vigo - La Liga Santander Photo by Angel Martinez/Getty Images

Here we go with another week of predictions in our last round of La Liga matches before the international break. Last week, we went 5/10 with one of those correct predictions, unfortunately, being a Villarreal loss. We are 58 for 98 on predictions so far this year, a pretty fair return in my estimation, especially since this algorithm was forced to start the year using five weeks of last season’s metrics. When you look at the standings in La Liga, you realize pretty quickly that this has not been an easy league to predict.

Matchday 13


Villarreal are, as you might imagine, resounding favorites this week. Our form has been lousy but our prediction model punishes bad performance more than bad results, and while our performance hasn’t been good, it’s been far better than what Getafe has put forward over the last five matches, even if they did win last week. Alaves versus Levante is, according to Charlie, the closest prediction we’ve had all season, so if that one goes draw do not be shocked.

Athletic Club mark the heaviest favorites we have had all season, so their defeating Cadiz is something we should all fully expect, and Barcelona only being marked with a 43% chance to beat Celta Vigo probably comes from the model sensing two factors. First, Celta is not as bad as their record. Second, Barca just isn’t very good. I’m inclined to agree with both conclusions.

One prediction that I think is a bit overblown is the one for El Gran Derbi. The model has no way of accounting for a match being a massive rivalry, and I just do not think Sevilla are worth a 67% win chance. Though they could run Betis off the pitch and prove me wrong.