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La Liga Matchday 14 Odds and Predictions

After a long international break we are back to telling you how the world’s best football league will play out.

Athletic Bilbao v FC Barcelona - Copa del Rey: Quarter Final Photo by Quality Sport Images/Getty Images

International breaks are eternal. I hope yours went well, for whatever country you are rooting for. Spain secured World Cup qualification, which I’m pleased with, but my PL fan friends started their ‘it’s coming home’ nonsense this past week as well which increases my dread for a midseason World Cup next year. As an American, I once again got to experience the roller coaster that is having a coach who is money against Mexico and mediocre against everyone else.

Going in to last matchday, our prediction algorithm was 58/98 on predictions for the year, a darn good ratio, and added to that was a 5/10 performance for matchday 13. One of those five correct predictions was Villarreal beating Getafe in a match that seems like ages ago.

Matchday 14


Celta is a strong favorite to beat Villarreal this week, a prediction the betting oddsmakers rather strikingly disagree with. Atletico Madrid are nearly a sure thing against Alaves per the model. Granada is predicted to narrowly beat Real Madrid, which I find absolutely fascinating, and that will be the scoreline I watch the most closely in relation to the model we’ve been using. Elche is also favored over Real Betis in yet another bold departure from the sportsbooks.

Overall, I like it. I like that the model can predict the correct result a majority of the time while still offering predictions that stray from expectations. That, to me, is the sign of something that is truly unique as an offering in the overcrowded world of sports predictions, and it has added to my enjoyment of this La Liga season to see it all play out.


Which predicted upset is most likely to happen this week in La Liga?