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La Liga Matchday 10 Odds and Predictions

We fire up our prediction model for another week of Spanish top flight action.

RCD Mallorca v Levante UD - La Liga Santander Photo by Rafa Babot/Getty Images

Despite only having 8 matches in the last jornada, our prediction algorithm did very well, getting 6/8 results correct, bringing us four matches above the .500 mark for the season, 45/68 overall. Here are the predictions for this week:


In what is a bit of a rarity this season, we are not favored to win this week. It makes sense to me, going on the road to the San Mames which is always a brutal place to play. This is a match that, before the season, I would have been fine drawing. Now, after way too many draws and a stupid defeat last time out in the league, I feel like we need to win.

The biggest favorite this week is Sevilla, which also makes sense. Levante is in big trouble this season. The overall predictions are fairly close this week, with just two teams given over 50% favoritism. In the match that’ll get the most media coverage this week, Real Madrid is a narrow favorite over Ronald Koeman’s walking circus.

We do have a bit of a rarity this week with a draw being predicted in what will probably be the best overall football match between Atleti and Real Sociedad. I think La Real have a very real chance to win La Liga this year. The biggest question in their season will come down to them rotating for Europa league knockouts later in the year. They are very, very good.

I’ve been really pleased with this algorithm so far this season. I think it’s done very well. I really appreciate Charlie and Mitch putting it together.