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La Liga Matchday 9 odds and predictions

We continue to try to predict how the Spanish top flight will unfold.

Real Sociedad v CA Osasuna - La Liga Photo by Pedro Salado/Quality Sport Images/Getty Images

Our prediction model had a bit of a rough week, getting 4/10 overall correct. This snaps a two week streak of getting the majority of predictions correct, bringing us to an exact 50% mark for the entire season. It’s not where we’d like to be, but as I always say in a sport where there are three possible results, getting half right isn’t too bad.

Matchday 9

@analyticsLaLiga

Real Sociedad are massive favorites against Mallorca, and honestly so far this season they’ve looked like legitimate title contenders. Rayo being so astonishingly favored over Elche really speaks to the state of the latter as their current point total may be a bit flattering.

Real Betis favored big over Alaves, who unfortunately look a lot like they’ll be going down, and we are giant favorites over Osasuna, who beat Rayo their last time out. As hapless as Barcelona are, they are still favored over Valencia. Most weeks, we have a lot of grey area in a few of the matches, with all the possible results coming in over or around 30%, but this week the model has been bold and decisive, and we’ll see if it does so to its own peril.

Real Madrid vs Athletic Club and Atleti vs Granada have been postponed. Just like last international break, CONMEBOL players returning late is causing issues. If these breaks are wreaking this much havoc, just imagine next season when there’s a world cup to contend with.

Thoughts?

The model likes us, and if we play the way we did just before the break, there’s good reason for that. I think Villarreal is good enough to push for top four in this La Liga, if they can just do what they are capable of.