Real Madrid 3-2 Villarreal: still no safety for the Submarine

Real Madrid defeated Villarreal 3-2 in a match that wasn’t nearly as close as the scoreline suggests—the bad news for Villarreal was not only did they lose (and Valladolid win) but Funes Mori picked up a yellow card and will be suspended against Eibar.

It has been looking for the past two months as though our last home match of the season against Eibar is going to be the key to whether we are in the Primera next term. Huesca and Rayo are now both definitely relegated, so there are five teams—Celta, Villarreal, Levante, Valladolid, and Girona—”competing” for the last spot.

All the matches next week are at the same time on Sunday; Eibar have absolutely nothing to play for but come in having won their last two matches. They will miss midfielder Escalante.

Girona will be without Borja Garcia, red-carded last match, when they host Levante, who don’t have any suspensions to worry about.

Basically, for Villarreal to achieve safety next Sunday, they need to at least match whatever Girona does.

If Girona lose, they are relegated. So even if Villarreal lose in that case, it doesn’t matter.

If Girona draw and Villarreal draw, Villarreal could still be relegated in the event that all five teams finish the season with 41 points. At that point there would be a table constructed with those five teams’ results against one another:

Girona 9 pts

Levante 9 pts

Villarreal 8 pts

Celta 13 pts

Valladolid 15 pts

so Villarreal would be relegated.

However, if only Girona, Levante and Villarreal are on 41, then Villarreal are safe; if Valladolid are a 4th team on 41, then Villarreal are safe (whether Girona or Levante go down depends on goal difference in either one of these cases).

If Celta is the 4th team, then Girona would have 8 pts, Villarreal 7, Levante 6 so Levante would be relegated.