Celta: big win on the road for them today, they now have 52 points and would win a tiebreak with Villarreal. Six matches left, including away matches at Athletic Club and Atleti. They can probably get 12 points, but more than that might be a big ask. Predicted total: 64
Sevilla: amazing that Sevilla can't win a game on the road this season in La Liga, isn't it? On 49 points, they would have to run the table to get to 67, I don't see it. Sevilla also wins a tiebreak with Villarreal (Celta would win a tiebreak with Sevilla). More likely they'll focus on trying to win the Europa League again to get to the CL that way. Predicted total: 64 at most
Athletic Club: Malaga, Levante and Las Palmas away--that's the good news. Home against Atleti, Sevilla, and Celta, three tough ones. Maybe they can run the table and get to 69, but far more likely to end up with 12-13 of the 18, so also looking at 64 probably. And remember, we win a tiebreak with them.
Last time Villarreal qualified for CL we had 62 points, we will need more than that this time but maybe not a lot more.
Magic number vs. Celta (Villarreal points obtained and Celta points dropped) is 11.
Magic number vs. Sevilla is 8; Magic number vs. Athletic Club is 9.
In all likelihood, home wins over Depor and La Real would be enough to get us there, but we would need two additional wins to definitely close out everyone. Endavant!!