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The Spanish football strike: what happens, if the season is over?

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There are all sorts of issues here, and no one really knows how they would be addressed. I'll give my guess.

Gonzalo Arroyo Moreno/Getty Images

So, if the strike goes ahead, what then?

The RFEF supplies referees to the first and second division matches, while the Segunda B players are also covered by the players' union.  Tercera matches as far as I can tell won't be affected.  The RFEF also runs the Copa del Rey (and Juvenil Copa del Rey).

If only one round is canceled (in other words, the players and RFEF do reach an agreement next week), it would be very difficult to make up the missed round, but I suppose it could happen.   But if the season ends, then what?

Sadly, some of the supporters of Barca and Madrid seem to think the strike is a good thing--Barca because they win the league again, both Barca and Madrid because "our players could get more rest before the CL final!".   That's just stupid and shortsighted, symptomatic of the mentality that what's good for the Big Two is good for everybody.  In fact, a strike will complicate matters for many clubs, though fortunately not as many as it could in the Primera, at least:

Primera CL places: Given the summer commitments of players and everything else, the season would end.  Barcelona would be crowned champions--I suppose that's not too unfair, unless you really think Deportivo could have knocked them off in the Camp Nou, since they have a four point lead with two to play.  Atletico Madrid and Valencia take 3rd and 4th and so qualify for the Champions League.  Somewhat ironic, since the previous TV deal (before Tebas and the government got involved) would have enshrined these two clubs as perpetual 3rd and 4th on the TV money list.  And the team just behind, Sevilla, was one of the main complainers.  A bit hard on Sevilla, but they would need Valencia to drop five points of the six remaining to have any chance at fourth (Valencia owning the tiebreak); now they can concentrate on winning a CL spot as EL champions.

Champions League: The RFEF has nothing to do with UEFA, and the players' dispute has nothing to do with UEFA either, so Barcelona is free to play in the final, as would Real Madrid if they win through.  Same for Sevilla in the EL assuming they win through tomorrow.

Europa League: A problem could come in UEFA assigning the 2015-16 Europa League spots.  At the moment, assuming Sevilla does NOT win this year's final, they and Villarreal would go in to the EL, and the third team would be either Malaga or Athletic Club, depending on the result of the Copa del Rey.  Which wouldn't be played.  So then what?  My guess is Malaga would get it, the cup spot having been vacated.

A Sevilla win in the Europa League final would solve this neatly, because then they would go into the CL as a fifth team and Spain would get three Europa League entries: Villarreal, Malaga and Athletic Club.  Still hard on Espanyol, Celta and Rayo, who would have had a shot at seventh or eighth in the last two rounds.

Relegation:  This is where it gets really nasty.  As it stands, the bottom three teams are Granada, Eibar and Cordoba, so in theory they would be relegated, while Deportivo and Almeria (who apparently won the appeal against their points deduction, so would remain on 32 points) would survive.  I say "in theory" because .....

Segunda Division:  Now it really gets nightmarish.  Remember the Segunda season still has five matches to run, so if some sort of agreement is reached in a couple of weeks, they could perhaps still get all their season in.  But what if they don't and their season ends today as well?

My suggestion (a seat-of-the-pants one) is that the league simply promote the top three teams: Betis, Girona and Sporting Gijon, and relegate the bottom three from the Primera.  An alternative is to promote the two teams that were in the automatic spots (Betis and Girona) and relegate Cordoba and Eibar.   Regardless, there are going to be teams in qualifying position for playoffs that don't happen, and they'll be screwed.

Relegation isn't much fairer: Racing, Sabadell, Barcelona B(!) and Recre are the bottom four, so presumably would go down.  Tough on Racing and Sabadell, who have shown some good form of late, and lucky for Osasuna, Tenerife and Mallorca--the latter two have struggled in the last month.

Tercera Division:  The only saving grace, I think, is that the Tercera players aren't covered by the players' union, nor is the RFEF involved in providing referees or grounds.  So I believe that means the Tercera playoffs can take place and promotion and relegation issues can be decided as usual.

That is of course assuming the situation is ultimately resolved before next season is supposed to start!