La Liga Relegation Scenarios

Denis Doyle

A late Betis winner, along with a Granada loss and Osasuna draw, set up some complicated scenarios for Jornada 38.

At least Villarreal supporters can look at this knowing we aren't involved!  It seems every year the relegation scenarios are complicated, and this year is no diffferent.

The main result in Jornada 37 as far as the bottom was concerned was that Elche are now safe.  Yay!   Almeria are *almost* safe, but not quite.

The four matches to consider are Valladolid v Granada; Osasuna-Betis; Rayo Vallecano-Getafe; and Almeria-Athletic Club.  And the most important is the first one.  (Keep in mind Betis are already down, so we are talking about 2 remaining spots).

If Valladolid defeat Granada: Granada are relegated.  If Osasuna draw or lose versus Betis, they are down as well,  Valladolid stay up.  But what happens if Osasuna defeat Betis?  It depends on the results of the Getafe match.

Briefly put, Getafe lose any tiebreak.  So if they lose, Osasuna win and Valladolid win, Getafe are down.  But if Getafe win or draw, Valladolid win and Osasuna win, Valladolid go down.  Got it?

If Granada and Valladolid draw: Valladolid go down, and now, of all things, Getafe can't be relegated--it's between Osasuna and Granada.  Osasuna will be relegated unless both Getafe and Almeria lose, in which case Granada would go down.

If Granada defeat Valladolid, then Valladolid go down with Betis.  Osasuna also go down unless they win their match; if they do, then it gets interesting.  Again, Getafe would lose any tiebreak, so they need a point to stay up.

The most complicated scenario occurs if Almeria lose, Getafe get at least a point and Osasuna are victorious.  Osasuna and Almeria would both be on 39 points; the tiebreak would go down to goal difference.  Currently, Almeria has a three-goal advantage, and has scored more goals than Osasuna, so the Pamplona side would need to win by at least 3 goals (if Almeria lose by one) to stay up.

Comments? Predictions?

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